Risk, Stakes & Probability
Thinking about risk, what's at stake, and the odds of something bad happening.
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Bite”Destroying a tropical rainforest and other species-rich ecosystems is like burning all the paintings of the Louvre to cook dinner."— Edward O. Wilson, the "father of biodiversity."
Bite"The climate system is an angry beast, and we're poking it with sticks."
— Walter Broecker, the climate science pioneer who uncovered the ocean's role in accelerating abrupt climate shifts in the earth's past.
— Walter Broecker, the climate science pioneer who uncovered the ocean's role in accelerating abrupt climate shifts in the earth's past.
Bite"Science isn't "yes or no." Science is gradually reducing uncertainty. Consider gravity. We know gravity with a fairly high degree of understanding but there are still little areas of gravity theory that scientists are still arguing about exactly how it works. But just because scientists don't h...
Bite"We're driving in a car with bad brakes in a fog and heaing for a cliff. We know for sure now that the cliff is out there, we just don't know exactly where it is. Prudence would suggest that we should start putting on the brakes."— John Holdren.
BiteWhether you choose 'wait and see' vs. accept the doctor's recommendation for urgent surgery is a value judgment. Ignoring or resolving climate change is also a value judgment.
Bite"Mother Nature is just chemistry, biology and physics. That's all she is. You cannot sweet-talk her. You cannot spin her. You cannot tell her that the oil companies say climate change is a hoax. No, Mother Nature is going to do whatever chemistry, biology and physics dictate"
"Mother Nature alwa...
Bite"It’s all a game of odds. We’ve never been here before. We just know two things: one, the CO2 we put into the atmosphere stays there for many years, so it is “irreversible” in real-time (barring some feat of geo-engineering); and two, that CO2 build-up has the potential to unleash “catastrophic” war...
Bite"Mother Nature puts a time limit on how long we can dither and procrastinate" before taking action. "Several vulnerable elements in earth's climate system could be pushed toward abrupt or irreversible change. . .with our business-as-usual increase in emissions."—Dr. Richard Somerville.
BiteWhile it's hard to know how much global warming contributes to any single weather event, science tells us that we will see more and more extreme weather as the earth warms. Think of today's extreme weather as a "sneak preview" of what lies ahead on our current path.
BiteContinued release of greenhouse gases is like playing "Russian Roulette with the climate, hoping that the future will hold no unpleasant surprises. No one knows what lies in the active chamber of the gun."
-- Oceangrapher, Wallace Broecker, 1987.
-- Oceangrapher, Wallace Broecker, 1987.
Bite
"It's 3:23 in the morning, and I'm awake
because my great, great, grandchildren won't let me sleep.
My great, great, grandchildren ask me in dreams
what did you do, while the planet was plundered?
what did you do, when the earth was unravelling?
...
BiteClimate change is like a big tsunami, far at sea but headed our way. To get our families "off the beach" and to safety, we need to act now. If we wait until we can see wave breaking, it will be too late.
BiteSome people ignore a suspicious lump in their body, hoping it will go away. When they eventually go to the doctor -- because of night sweats, pain, weight loss, etc -- they are told that it's 'too late,' but that if they'd come when they first noticed the problem, the situation might have been salv...
Bite“The prospect of extreme climate change and its potentially devastating economic and social consequences are of great concern to the insurance industry.” — Kyoto Statement of The Geneva Association, 29th May, 2009
BiteA hundred years from now, looking back, the only question that will appear important about the historical moment in which we now live is the question of whether or not we did anything to arrest climate change.
Everything else—the financial crisis, the life or death of the euro, authorita...
Everything else—the financial crisis, the life or death of the euro, authorita...
Bite"The world is perfectly on track to six degrees Celsius increasing the temperature, which is very bad news. And everybody, even school children, know this will have catastrophic implications for all of us."—Fatih Birol, IEA
BiteSome people say ‘When you are sure about climate change, then we will do something about it.’
Suppose your doctor says ‘Well, I am very concerned about your heart condition. I think you should be on a low cholesterol diet and exercise.’ Would anybody say to their doctor ‘If you can't tell me pre...
Bite"If you don't know how to keep poisons out of somebody's water, or their air, how can you say you love your neighbor?" —Christian Environmentalist Fred Van Dyke.
BiteClimate = the canvas on which 21st C history will be painted.
Bite"The paleoclimate record shouts out to us that, far from being self-stabilising, the Earth's climate system is an ornery beast which overreacts to even small nudges." -- Reknowned paleoclimatologist, Wallace Broeker
Bite"There is this long, wonderful history of the human race written in blood. We have this tendency to just take what we want. And that's how we treat the natural world as well. There's this sense of we're here, we're big, we've got the guns, we've got the technology, therefore we're entitled to every ...
Bite"I wouldn’t characterize wanting to use the brakes on a foggy road as hysteria.
Humanity is simply driving too fast for the conditions ahead, and should be more cautious."
Bite"Clean up Your Own Mess" -- Robert Fulghum
"Cleaning up after ourselves generally is neither easy nor fun, and we usually don't like it." -- Richard B. Alley
BiteThe longer global warming continues, the greater the risk of "waking the sleeping giants"—major feedbacks such as ice sheet collapse, methane "burps," or ecosystem collapse—that could ignite abrupt or runaway warming beyond our control.
BiteWe're like the overweight patient that goes to the doctor and learns his cholesterol is too high. He doesn't die immediately—but until he changes his lifestyle and gets back down to the safe zone, he's at more risk from heart attack or stroke. If we're already past 350 [ppm CO2], are we all doome...
Bite"We're headed toward this cliff, and instead of taking our foot off the gas we're stepping on the pedal."—Scott Mandia.
BiteIt's hard to change habits, especially when the most harmful consequences lie in the distant future. Try convincing a teenager to stop smoking because he might get lung cancer... in 20 years!
Bite“Like the sinking of the Titanic, catastrophes are not democratic. A much higher fraction of passengers from the cheaper decks were lost. We’ll see the same phenomenon with global warming.”
BiteClimate change will have major impacts on the availability of water for growing food and on crop productivity in the decades to come. Increased temperatures will lengthen the growing season in northern temperate zones but will reduce the length almost everywhere else. The livelihoods of rural commun...
BiteWould you put your grandkids on an airplane that 97 of the top 100 aerospace engineers declared unsafe, because you heard the 3 others say 'no problem, it's perfectly sound?'
BiteClimate change is not a "cocktail hour curiosity." It is a very dangerous threat. Our climate system is an angry beast and we are poking it with a sharp stick. - inspired by Wallace Broecker
Bite‘Is it going to be bad or horrifically bad?’ This is what the scientists debate, not it could be fine. Nothing like that.’ – Dr. Justin Wood, climate scientist
Bite“It is no longer enough to love, feed, shelter, clothe and educate a child – not when the future itself is in danger. Being conscientious parents today also means working to protect the nation and the planet – now, before it’s too late.”—Carl Sagan & Ann Druyan, 1988
Bite"The excess CO2 that is pumped into the air today will affect our planet for thousands of years into the future. I am not an alarmist, but I am alarmed. You should be too."—Dr. Stephen Mulkey.
Bite100 years ago, Titanic's Captain Smith steamed ahead full speed, despite iceberg warnings. By time the fatal 'berg was visible, it was too late to turn the big ship. Today, the looming hazard is global warming. Will we heed the warnings in time to change course?
BiteTake two breaths. Your second breath comes from phytoplankton, who produce 1/2 the world's oxygen. One more reason to protect oceans.
BiteWant your kids skiing down the bunny slope or the triple black diamond expert slope? This is our choice for reducing our global carbon emissions.
BiteClimate change increases the odds for extreme weather. Like playing Russian Roulette, while adding more and more bullets to a revolver. You'll never know whether the bullet that fired was the original "natural" bullet, or one of the new ones you added. But you'll be just as dead.
How to survive as a species...
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Bite"Nature favours those organisms which leave the environment in better shape for their progeny to survive" — James Lovelock
Bite97 doctors said you must have a tumor removed or it'll kill you.
But you decided to follow the advice of 3 who said "Nah, it's just a shadow on the x-ray."
. . . So, how did that work out for you?
Bite"An obese, middle-aged man is running to catch a bus. Suddenly, he clutches his chest, falls to the ground and dies of a massive heart attack. It turns out that he's a smoker and a diabetic, has high blood pressure, eats a diet high in saturated fat and low in leafy green vegetables, pours salt on e...
Hungry Children? Feed them Candy!
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BiteElectric utility CEOs say they must burn coal to meet our energy demands. Sure, hungry kids want candy not vegetables. Yet, burning coal or eating lots of sweets is not healthy for their future.
Bite1.4 F of warming so far has led to 40% less Arctic ice mass, Western wildfires that now consume 6x more forest, more frequent big hurricanes and insurance companies quitting many coastal areas. To imagine 11 degrees of warming, multiply by 8.
Bite"The earth itself is a spaceship. We had better keep an eye its air control system." - Roger Revelle, Director of the Scripps Institute of Oceanography, 1950-1964.
Slow down, you'll have an accident!
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BiteLiving with increased CO2 in the atmosphere is like a rain shower on the highway. It doesn't necessarily cause a crash but it increases the possibility of one and is likely to make any accident more severe.
BiteBy the 2040s, the entire North Pole will be open water in the summer, with no sea ice. This has terrible consequences for Santa Claus and his Workshop.
Bite"Knowledge of the oceans is more than a matter of curiosity. Our very survival may hinge upon it.” President John F. Kennedy, Jr., March 1961 message to Congress.
BiteA school bus goes up a hill, then down. The hilltop is the tipping point. Earth is the bus, but with no driver, just quarreling teenagers, called governments. And no brakes.
BiteWho knew? Power plants use 40% of U.S. freshwater supplies. How will they cope with a drier climate? Who will keep the lights on when the water runs out?
Bite"We're in a giant car headed for a brick wall and everyone is arguing over where they want to sit." - David Suzuki
BiteTo stay below the blood-alcohol limit, we should drink no more than six standard drinks. To keep world temperature increase below 2C we must consume no more than 565 gigatons of fossil fuel. That is only one-fifth of known fossil fuel reserves. Bill McKibben.
BiteCutting greenhouse gas emissions is like buying an insurance policy: we incur a cost to reduce a risk.
Bite"We will see it, our kids will live it, and there's a question of whether our grandkids will make it through or not."
BiteThere’s no “STOP” button. There’s no emergency brake. Think of our climate system as an enormous tanker with a world’s worth of momentum behind it. Once it gets going, it can’t turn around on a dime.
Bite"You never have 100% certainty in anything. If you wait for 100% certainty on the battlefield, something bad is going to happen." — Vice Admiral Dennis McGinn (retired), former Deputy Chief of Naval Operations.
BiteMartin Luther King “would say that we need to come together because this is our planet, and if we lose this, then all the other issues won’t matter.”—Rev. Lennox Yearwood, Jr., President of HipHop Caucus
Bite“Think of climate change as something that increases our risks of being unlucky. We need to prepare up front as we move into a warmer, hotter, more extreme world.” – Heidi Cullen, Chief Climatologist for Climate Central.org
There is no 'Planet B'
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BiteWhy is climate action so important? Because there is no 'Planet B.'
Bite'Scientists say, when it comes to climate change, we need to manage what is unavoidable and avoid what is unmanageable.' — Thomas Friedman, NY Times columnist
BiteClimate change is an emergency happening in slow-motion.
(Variations: A slo-mo train wreck or catastrophe.)
Bite"Unfortunately, the focus remains mostly on “global warming” instead of on the bigger concern—that we are disrupting the planet’s climate in completely unpredictable ways." — Ajit Varki and Danny Brower, writers of the 2013 book, "Denial: Self-Deception, False Beliefs, and the Origins of the Human M...
BiteOur very elaborate infrastructure won't work because it was designed for the climate we had, not the one we are going to have. — Dr. Richard Somerville, Distinguished Professor, Climate Research Division at Scripps Institution of Oceanography.
Bite"If 1 degee melts the Arctic, we're fools to find out what 2 degrees will do." — Bill McKibben, environmental author & founder of 350.org
Bite“Climate Change is not just another issue. It is an issue that if left unchecked, will swamp all other issues.” — Ross Gelbspan, writer and activist. He wrote two books on global warming: The Heat Is On (1997) and Boiling Point (2004)
Bite‘The danger is not to the planet but to our civilization on the planet. This is the real challenge of climate change.’ – Adam Frank, writer for National Public Radio.
Bite‘We can think of global warming as a bully that comes by every year and tells you to give him more and more of your money.’ – Park Williams, a tree ring researcher at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.